Publications

Cartwright, J. M., C. E. Littlefield, J. L. Michalak, J. J. Lawler, and S. Z. Dobrowski.  2020. Topographic, soil, and climate drivers of drought sensitivity in forests and shrublands of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Scientific Reports 10:18486. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75273-5.    (pdf)

 

Michalak, J. L., D. Stralberg, J. M. Cartwright, and J. J. Lawler.  2020.  Combining physical and species-based approaches improves refugia identification.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 18: 254-260.     (pdf)

Lawler, J. J., D. S. Rinnan, J. L. Michalak, J. C. Withey, C. R. Randels, H. P. Possingham.  2020. Planning for climate change through additions to a national protected area network: implications for cost and configuration. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 375: 20190117. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0117.     (pdf)

Rinnan, D. S. and J. J. Lawler.  2019. Climate-niche factor analysis: a spatial approach to quantifying species vulnerability to climate change. Ecography, https://doi-org.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/10.1111/ecog.03937      (pdf)

Littlefield, C., M. Krosby, J. L. Michalak, and J. J. Lawler.  2019.  Connectivity to address climate-driven range shifts.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 17: 270-278.     (pdf)

 

Nogeire-McRae, T., J. J. Lawler, N. H. Schumaker, B. L. Cypher, and S. E. Phillips. 2019. Land use change and rodenticide exposure trump climate change as the biggest stressors to San Joaquin kit fox. PLoS ONE 14(6): e0214297.     (pdf)

Littlefield, C., E. Nelson, B. Dittbrenner, J. Withey, K. Arkema, and J. Lawler.  2019.  Ecosystem-based adaptation. In: T. Lovejoy and L Hannah (eds.), Biodiversity and Climate Change, 2nd edition.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J.  2019.  Anticipating climate-driven movement routes. In: T. Lovejoy and L Hannah (eds.), Biodiversity and Climate Change, 2nd edition.     

Michalak, J. L., J. J. Lawler, D. R. Roberts, C. Carroll. 2018. Distribution and protection of climatic refugia in North America. Conservation Biology 32: 1414-1425.     (pdf)

 

Molinos J. G., E. S. Poloczanska, J. D. Olden, J. J. Lawler, M. T. Burrows. 2018. Biogeographical Shifts and Climate Change. In: Dellasala, D. A., and M. I. Goldstein, editors. Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene. Oxford: Elsevier. p. 217-28.     (pdf)

 

Dittbrenner, B. J., M. M. Pollock, J. W. Schilling, J. D. Olden, J. J. Lawler, and C. E. Torgersen.  2018.  Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation. PLoS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192538.     (pdf)

Fullerton, A. H., C. E. Torgersen, J. J. Lawler, E. A. Steel, J. L. Ebersole, and S. Y. Lee.  2018.  Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: effects of scale and climate change.  Aquatic Sciences 80:3, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-017-0557-9     (pdf)

 

Fullerton, A. H., B. J. Burke, J. J. Lawler, C. E. Torgersen, J. L. Ebersole, and S. G. Leibowitz.  2017.  Simulated Juvenile salmon growth and phenology respond to altered thermal regimes and stream network shape. Ecosphere 8: e02052.  DOI:10.1002/ecs2.2052.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. and J. Michalak. 2017.  Planning for climate change without climate projections? In: P. Kareiva, B. Silliman, M. Marvier (eds.), Uncomfortable Questions and Confirmation Bias in Conservation.  Oxford University Press.     (pdf)

Beever, E. A., L. E. Hall, J. Varner, A. E. Loosen, J. B. Dunham, M. K. Gahl, F. A. Smith, and J. J. Lawler.  2017.  Behavior as a mechanism for coping with climate change.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 15: 299-308.     (pdf)

 

Michalak, J. L., J. C. Withey, J. J. Lawler, M. J. Case.  2017.  Navigating multiple lines of evidence to evaluate future climate vulnerability.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 15: 367-376.     (pdf)

 

Littlefield, C. E., B. H. McRae, J. Michalak, J. J. Lawler, and Carlos Carroll.  2017.  Connecting today’s climates to future analogs to facilitate species movement under climate change.  Conservation Biology 31: 1397-1408.     (pdf)

 

Carroll, C., D. R. Roberts, J. L. Michalak, J. J. Lawler, S. E. Nielsen, D. Stralberg, A. Hamann, B. H. McRae, and T. Wang.  2017.  Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.  Global Change Biology 23: 4508-4520.     (pdf)

 

Kuehne, L. M., J. D. Olden, A. L. Strecker, J. J. Lawler, and D. M. Theobald.  2017.  Past, present, and future of ecological integrity assessment for fresh waters.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 15: 197-205.     (pdf)

Case, M. J. and J. J. Lawler.  2017.  Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America.  Global Change Biology 23: 2005-2015.     (pdf)

Early, R. B. Bradley, J. Dukes, J. J. Lawler, J. D. Olden, D. M. Blumenthal, C. D’Antonio,  P. Gonzalez, E. Grosholz, I. Ibañez, L. Miller, C. Sorte, A. J. Tatem.  2016.  Invasive species in the 21st Century: Global threats and national response capabilities.  Nature Communications 7: 12485.     (pdf)

 

Bancroft, B., J. J. Lawler, N. H. Schumaker.  2016.  Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird.  Ecology and Evolution 6: 4468-4477.     (pdf)

 

Case, M. J. and J. J. Lawler.  2016.  Relative vulnerability to climate change of trees in western North America.  Climatic Change 136: 367-397.     (pdf)

 

Siña, M., R. C. Wood, E. Saldarriaga, J. Lawler, J. Zunt, P. Garcia, and C. Cárcamo.  2016.  Understanding perceptions of climate change, priorities, and decision-making among municipalities in Lima, Peru to better inform adaptation and mitigation planning.  PLoS ONE 11(1): e0147201, DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0147201.     (pdf)

 

Spencer, B., J. Lawler, C. Lowe, L. Thompson, T. Hinckley, S-H. Kim, S. Bolton, S. Meschke, J. D. Olden, and J. Voss.  2016.  Case studies in co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management DOI:10.1080/09640568.2016.1168287.     (pdf)

McGuire, J. L., J. J. Lawler, B. McRae, T. Nuñez, D. Theobald.  2016.  Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 213: 7195-7200.    (pdf)  (SI)

Lawler, J. J., J. E. M. Watson, E. T. Game.  2015. Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments. F1000Research 2015, 4(F1000 Faculty Rev):1158 (doi: 10.12688/f1000research.6490.1).     (pdf)

 

Carroll, C., J. J. Lawler, D. R. Roberts, and A. Hamann.  2015.  Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. PLoS ONE 10(10): e0140486. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0140486.     (pdf)

Lee S-Y, M. E. Ryan, A. F. Hamlet, W. J. Palen, J. J. Lawler, and M. Halabisky.  2015.  Projecting the hydrologic impacts of climate change on montane wetlands.  PLoS ONE doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0136385.     (pdf)

Krosby, M., C. Wilsey, J. McGuire, T. Nogeire, J. Heinrichs, J. M. Duggan, J. Tewksbury, J. J. Lawler.  2015.  Climate-induced range overlap among closely related species.  Nature Climate Change 5: 883-886.     (pdf)

Langdon, J. G. R. and J. J. Lawler.  2015.  Assessing the threat of future climate change to the protected areas of western North America. Ecosphere 187: 127-133.     (pdf)

 

Case, M. J., J. J. Lawler, and J. A. Tomasevic.  2015.  Relative sensitivity to climate change of species in northwestern North America.  Biological Conservation 187: 127-133.     (pdf)

 

Anderson, M. G., P. J. Comer, P. Beier, J. J. Lawler, C. Schloss, S. Buttrick, C. Albano, and D. P. Faith. 2015.  Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity.  Conservation Biology 29: 680-691.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., D. Ackerly, C. Albano, M. Anderson, M. Cross, S. Dobrowski, J. Gill, N. Heller, R. Pressey, E. Sanderson, and S. Weiss.  2015.  The theory behind, and challenges of, conserving nature’s stage in a time of rapid change. Conservation Biology 29: 618-629.     (pdf)

 

Chornesky, E. A., D. D. Ackerly, P. Beier, F. W. Davis, L. E. Flint, J. J. Lawler, P. B. Moyle, M. A. Moritz, M. Scoonover, P. Alvarez, K. Byrd, N. Heller, L. Micheli, and S. Weiss.  2015. Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate.  BioScience 65: 247-262.     (pdf)

Schmitz, O. J., J. J. Lawler, P. Beier, C. Groves, G. Knight, D. A. Boyce Jr., J. Bulluck, K. M. Johnston, M. L. Klein, K. Muller, D. J. Pierce, W. R. Singleton, J. R. Strittholt, D. M. Theobald, S. C. Trombulak, and A. Trainor.  2015.  Conserving biodiversity: practical guidance about climate change adaptation approaches in support of land-use planning.  Natural Areas Journal 35: 190-203.     (pdf)

Lawrence, D. J., B. Stewart-Koster, J. D. Olden, A. S. Ruesch, C. E. Torgersen, J. J. Lawler, D. P. Butcher, J. K. Crown.  2014.  The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a non-native predator on stream-rearing salmon.  Ecological Applications 24: 895-912.     (pdf)

Lankford, A. J., L. K. Svancara, J. J. Lawler, K. Vierling. 2014. Comparison of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Wildlife.  Wildlife Society Bulletin. Doi: 10.1002/wsb.399.     (pdf)

 

Ibáñez, I., J. M. Diez, L. P. Miller, J. D. Olden, C. J. B. Sorte, D. M. Blumenthal, B. A. Bradley, C. M. D’Antonio, J. S. Dukes, R. Early, E. D. Grosholz, and J. J. Lawler.  2014.  Integrated assessment of biological invasions.  Ecological Applications 24: 25-37.     (pdf)

 

Stein, B. A., A. Staudt, M. S. Cross, N. S. Dubois, C. Enquist, R. Griffis, L. J. Hansen, J. J. Hellmann, J. J. Lawler, E. J. Nelson, A. Pairis.  2013.  Preparing for and managing change: climate adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11: 502-510.     (pdf)

 

M. D. Staudinger, S. L. Carter, M. S. Cross, N. S. Dubois, J. E. Duffy, C. Enquist, R. Griffis, J. J. Hellmann, J. J. Lawler, J. O’Leary, S. A. Morrison, L. Sneddon, B. A. Stein, L. M. Thompson, and W. Turner.  2013.  Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the United States.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11: 465-473.     (pdf)

 

Lawler. J. J., A. Ruesch, J. D. Olden, B. H. McRae.  2013.  Projected climate-driven faunal movement routes.  Ecology Letters 16: 1014-1022.     (pdf)

 

Wilsey, C. B., J. J. Lawler, E. P. Maurer, D. McKenzie, P. A. Townsend, R. Gwozdz, J. A. Freund, K. Hagmann, and K. M. Hutten. 2013. Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife.  Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 4: 220-241.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., B. Spencer, J. D. Olden, S.-H. Kim, C. Lowe, S. Bolton. B. M. Beamon, L. Thompson, and J. G. Voss.  2013.  Mitigation and adaptation strategies.  In: R. Pielke, Sr., K. Suding, and T. Seastedt, Eds.  Climate Vulnerability: Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources, Volume 5, Ecosystem Function.  Elsevier Inc. Academic Press.   (pdf)

 

Nuñez, T. A., J. J. Lawler, B. H. McRae, D. J. Pierce, M. B. Krosby, D. M. Kavanagh, P. H. Sigleton, and J. J. Tewksbury.  2013.  Connectivity planning to address climate change.  Conservation Biology 27: 407-416.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., C. A. Schloss, A. K. Ettinger.  2013.  Climate change: anticipating and adapting to the impacts on terrestrial species.  In: S. A. Levin, Ed.  Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, second edition, Volume 2, pp100-114, Academic Press, Waltham, MA.     (pdf)

 

Cross, M. S., J. A. Hilty, G. M. Tabor, J. J. Lawler, L. J. Graumlich, J. Berger.  2012.  From connect-the-dots to dynamic networks: Maintaining and restoring connectivity as a strategy to address climate change impacts on wildlife.  In: J. Brodie, E. Post, D. Doak, Eds. Conserving wildlife populations in a changing climate.  Chicago University Press.     (pdf)

Lawler, J. J., H. D. Safford, and E. H. Girvetz.  2012.  Martens and fishers in a changing climate.  In: K. B. Aubry, Eds.  Biology and Conservation of Martens, Sables, and Fishers: a New Synthesis.  Cornell University Press.     (pdf)

 

Ruesch, A. S., C. E. Torgersen, J. J. Lawler, J. D. Olden, E. E. Peterson, C. J. Volk, D. J. Lawrence.  2012.  Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, USA.  Conservation Biology 26: 873-882.     (pdf)

Diez, J. M., C. M. D’Antonio, J. S. Dukes, E. D. Grosholz, J. D. Olden, C. J. B. Sorte, D. M. Blumenthal, B. A. Bradley, R. Early, I. Ibáñez, S. J. Jones, J. J. Lawler, and L. P. Miller.  2012. Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 10: 249-257.     (pdf)

 

Schloss, C. A., T. A. Nuñez, and J. J. Lawler.  2012.  Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A. 109: 8606-8611.     (pdf)

 

Krosby, M., J. Hoffman, J. J. Lawler, and B. H. McRae.  2012.  Integrating climate change into conservation planning in Washington State, and the Pacific Northwest. In: C. C. Chester, J. A. Hilty, and M. S. Cross, Eds. Climate and Conservation: Landscape and Seascape Science, Planning, and Action.  Island Press.

 

Cross, M. S., E. S. Zavaleta, D. Bachelet, M. Brooks, C. A. F. Enquist, E. Fleishman, L. Graumlich, C. Groves, L. Hannah, L. Hansen, G. Hayward, M. Koopman, J. J. Lawler, J. Malcolm, J. Nordgren, B. Petersen, E. L. Rowland, D. Scott, S. Shafer, R. Shaw, J. Weaver, and G.M. Tabor. 2012.  The adaptation for conservation targets (ACT) framework: a tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management.  Environmental Management 50: 341-351.     (pdf)

 

Trombulak, S. C., R. F. Baldwin, J. J. Lawler, J. Cymerman-Hepinstall, and M. A. Anderson. 2012. Landscape-scale conservation planning for climate change in the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion.  In: C. C. Chester, J. A. Hilty, and M. S. Cross, Eds. Climate and Conservation: Landscape and Seascape Science, Planning, and Action.  Island Press

Bradley, B. A., D. M. Blumenthal, R. I. Early, E. D. Grosholz, J. J. Lawler, L. P. Miller, C. J. B. Sorte, C. M. D’Antonio, J. M. Diez, J. S. Dukes, I. Ibanez, and J. D. Olden.  2012.  Global change, global trade, and the next wave of plant invasions.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 10: 20-28.     (pdf)

 

Schloss, C. A., J. J. Lawler, E. R. Larson, H. L. Papendick M. J. Case, D. M. Evans, J. H. DeLap, J.G.R. Langdon, S. A. Hall, and B. H. McRae.  2011.  Systematic conservation planning in the face of climate change: bet-hedging on the Columbia Plateau. PLoS ONE 6: e28788.     (pdf)

 

Kostyack, J., J. J. Lawler, D. D. Goble, J. D. Olden, and J. M. Scott.  2011.  Beyond reserves and corridors: policy solutions to facilitate the movement of plants and animals in a changing climate.  BioScience 61: 713-719.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J.  2011.  News and Views: Conservation at any cost. Nature Climate Change 1: 350-351.     (pdf)     

 

Lawler, J. J., E. Nelson, M. Conte, S. L. Shafer, D. Ennaanay, and G. Mendoza.  2011.  Modeling the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services.  In: P. M. Kareiva, T. H. Ricketts, G. C. Daily, H. Tallis, and S. Polasky, Eds.  The Theory and Practice of Ecosystem Service Valuation. Oxford University Press.

Blaustein, A.R., C. Searle, B.A. Bancroft and J. Lawler.  2011. Amphibian population declines and climate change. In: J. Belant and E. Beever, Eds. Ecological Consequences of Climate Change: Mechanisms, Conservation, and Management. Taylor & Francis Publishing. 

 

Lawler, J. J., and J. D. Olden.  2011.  Reframing the debate over assisted colonization.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9: 569-574.     (pdf)

 

Olden, J. D., M. J. Kennard, J. J.  Lawler, N. L. Poff.  2011. Challenges and opportunities in implementing managed relocation for conservation of freshwater species.  Conservation Biology 25: 40-47.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., Y.F. Wiersma, and F. Huettmann.  2011.  Designing predictive models for increased utility: using species distribution models for conservation planning and ecological forecasting. In: Drew, A., Y. F. Wiersma, and F. Huettmann, Editors. Predictive Modeling in Landscape Ecology. Springer Press.

 

Jantarasami, L. C., J. J. Lawler, and C. W.  Thomas.  2010.  Institutional barriers to climate-change adaptation in U.S. national parks and forests.  Ecology and Society. 15(4): 33.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., J. A. Hepinstall-Cymerman.  2010.  Conservation planning in a changing climate: assessing the impacts of potential range shifts on a reserve network. In: R. Baldwin and S. C. Trombulak, Eds. Multi-scale Conservation Planning.  Springer-Verlag.    

 

Blaustein, A. R., S. C. Walls, B. A. Bancroft, J. J. Lawler, C. L. Searle, and S. S. Gervasi.  2010.  Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations.  Diversity 2: 281-313.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., S. L. Shafer, B. A. Bancroft, and A. R. Blaustein.  2010.  Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere.  Conservation Biology 24: 38-50.     (pdf)

 

Belant, J. L., E. A. Beever, J. E. Gross, and J. J. Lawler.  2010.  Introduction: special section: ecological responses to contemporary climate change within species, communities, and ecosystems.  Conservation Biology 24: 7-9.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., T. Tear, C. R. Pyke, R. Shaw, P. Gonzalez, P. Kareiva, L. Hansen, L. Hannah, K. Klausmeyer, A. Aldous, C. Bienz, and S. Pearsall.  2010.  Resource management in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8: 35-43.     (pdf)

 

Girvetz, E., C. Zganjar, G. T. Raber, E. P. Maurer, P. Kareiva, and J. J. Lawler.  2009.  Applied climate-change analysis: the Climate Wizard tool.  PLoS ONE 4(12): e8320. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0008320.     (pdf)

 

West, J. M., S. H. Julius, P. Kareiva, C. Enquist, A. E. Johnson, J. J. Lawler, B. Petersen, and E. R. Shaw. 2009.  U.S. Natural resources and climate change: concepts and approaches for management adaptation. Environmental Management 44: 1001-1021.     (pdf)

 

Griffith, B., J. M. Scott, R. S. Adamcik, D. M. Ashe, B. Czech, R. Fischman, P. Gonzalez, J. J. Lawler, A. D. McGuire, and A. Pidgorna.  2009.  Climate Change adaptation options for the U. S. National Wildlife Refuge System. Environmental Management 44: 1043-1052.     (pdf)

Fox, H. E., P. Kareiva, B. Silliman, J. Hitt, D. Lytle, B. S. Halpern, Christine V. Hawkes, J. J. Lawler, M. Neel, J. D. Olden, M. Schlaepfer, K. Smith, H. Tallis.  2009.  Why do we fly?  Ecologists’ sins of emission. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7: 294-296.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J.  2009.  Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1162: 79-98.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., S. L. Shafer, D. White, P. Kareiva, E. P. Maurer, A. R. Blaustein, and P. J. Bartlein.  2009.  Projected climate-induced faunal change in the western hemisphere. Ecology 90: 588-597.     (pdf)

Lawler J. J., J. E. Aukema, J. Grant, B. Halpern, P. Kareiva, C. R. Nelson, K. Ohleth, J. D. Olden, M. A. Schlaepfer, B. Silliman, and P. Zaradic.  2006.  Conservation science: a 20-year report card.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 4: 473-480.     (pdf)

 

Lawler, J. J., D. White, R. P. Neilson, and A. R. Blaustein.  2006.  Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.  Global Change Biology 12: 1568-1584.     (pdf)